Thursday, December 22, 2011

Florida’s Unemployment Reduced During 2011

Florida had the second best year among all the states in terms of reducing unemployment over the last year, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported this week.


Florida was behind only New Mexico in lowering its official jobless rate from 11.9 percent in November 2010 to 10 percent last month, the bureau said. New Mexico's jobless rate dropped 2.1 percentage points from 8.6 to 6.5 percent.

Right behind Florida was Michigan, which lowered its rate 1.6 percentage points to 9.8 percent and West Virginia, which saw a 1.7 percentage point drop to 7.9 percent.

Also, the 98,100 jobs that Florida added over the year put the state third in the nation, behind only California and Texas. Still, Florida is just one of eight remaining states with double digit unemployment, though the situation is better than in Nevada, at 13 percent, and California at 11.3 percent. North Dakota has the lowest jobless rate, 3.4 percent.

Gov. Rick Scott talked about the state’s success in a radio appearance Wednesday morning. “We’ve got to get more jobs in the state, but this has been a great year” the governor said during an interview with WFLA Radio in Tallahassee.

Source: News Service of Florida
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Tuesday, December 20, 2011

Top 10 Cities Targeted by Foreign Investors - Is Your Town On The List?

From Chinese investors flocking to California to Canadian snowbirds heading to Arizona, international homebuyers are offering a growing niche for more real estate professionals.


But which places are international investors targeting in their home search? Point2Homes.com evaluated where buyers from overseas are looking online to gauge possible current and future home-purchasing patterns.

Canadian investors have a growing appetite for U.S. real estate, Point2 finds. Canadian investors made up 91.89 percent of the overall international traffic to Arizona listings, 75.90 percent to Hawaii, 73.92 percent to Michigan, 70.55 percent to Nevada, and 65.05 percent to California.

Las Vegas had the highest overall international traffic online among U.S. cities, with Canadians serving as the leading source of traffic there at 70.47 percent, followed by 5.28 percent of the traffic coming from U.K. residents and 2.19 percent from France.

The top 10 cities for international traffic online by international buyers in the third quarter are:

1. Las Vegas, Nev.
2. Orlando, Fla.3. Kissimmee, Fla.
4. Detroit, Mich.
5. Pompano-Beach, Fla.
6. Miami, Fla.

7. Mesa, Ariz.
8. Davenport, Fla.9. Phoenix, Ariz.
10. Indio, Calif.

Overall, Florida emerged as the top state attracting international traffic online for the third-quarter, according to Point2.

Source: Point2

© Copyright 2011 INFORMATION, INC. Bethesda, MD

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Monday, December 19, 2011

Good Signs for the New Year

Here’s a change. Lately most of the dire economic news has been coming out of Europe: talk about the future of the Eurozone, whether or not the EU will hold together as an entity, and even some predictions that the euro may not survive as a currency. Some analysts in the U.S. are suggesting that problems in Europe are contagious and will doom our economy to another recession. But despite those European currency and economic troubles, a possibility of an economic recession in the upcoming year here in the U.S. looks less and less likely.


The key reason is the housing market recovery. After six years of a demoralizing and protracted housing market recession, a light is finally appearing at the end of the tunnel - and it is not a headlight from a freight-train. It is a genuine warm sunny glow. The latest pending home sales index – which reflects contract signings to purchase a home – rose more than 10 percent in October from the previous month and more than 9 percent from one year ago. Because the wide swings in sales related to the homebuyer tax credit are largely over, that year over year increase is a clean jump and not just a rise due to some artificially low comps of the past year. Clearly the data implies something is brewing out there. Yes, there are still cancellation issues related to appraisals, tight underwriting, and other issues. But buyers are evidently recognizing the great opportunity to own real estate and acting accordingly. Let’s examine several of the factors that suggest the worst is over.

First, existing home inventory has been trending downward consistently. The total number of homes listed for sale at the end of October was 3.3 million, down from 4.5 million in the middle of 2008. Remember, there are seasonal swings in the number of listings – with spring/summer months reflecting more home sellers (more listings) and autumn/winter months reflecting fewer sellers (fewer listings), so we still need to make proper seasonal adjustment comparisons. When we look just at the month of October during the past several years, this October registered the lowest inventory since 2005. The same was true for the month of September; September 2011 registered the lowest September inventory since 2005. Again, similar stories are seen for July and August of this year. In short, inventory has been running at six-year lows for several consecutive months. That is important to note, because lower inventory is a signal that price declines are coming to an end. In fact, the government measurement of home prices – from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) – has risen in five out of the past six months, and home prices according to the FHFA are up two percent from their low point in March of this year. Other price data, such as that from Case-Shiller and NAR, have been moving both up and down with no consistent direction since 2009. In other words: prices have been roughly stable for the past three years.

Second, rents are rising and rent increases accelerating. The primary rent component of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is up 2.4 percent from 12 months ago, but has been accelerating at 4.8 percent in the most recent monthly reading on an annualized basis. Rising rents will tip some renters into home buying, while real estate investors will have an added reason to own another property. According to The Economist magazine, the rent metric in the U.S. is such that home values are eight percent below justifiable levels.

Third, jobs are being added to the economy. Since the low point in early 2009, the economy has added 2.5 million net new jobs. Generally more jobs mean more home sales. So far, the extra jobs have not led to higher home sales. But to view it another way, pent up demand for housing has been growing and it is inevitable that home sales will have to tick higher with more jobs.

Fourth, mortgage rates are too low to pass up. While some financially qualified buyers are strategizing about the perfect time to enter the market in term of rates and home prices, these considerations are like picking up nickels and dimes when viewed from a far-off horizon. Consider what has happened in the past 30 years regarding the prices of consumer goods. On a broad basis, consumer prices have risen 160 percent from 1981 to 2011. Rent – and coincidentally gasoline prices – rose 200 percent. Home values rose 220 percent, even after accounting for the price declines during the recent housing downturn years. Medical care costs increased a whopping 400 percent. But even that increase was bested by the increase in college tuition which rose nearly 700 percent (which raises a number of questions about where the tuition monies go). One consumer item that did not rise in cost was the average monthly mortgage payment for those who took out a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage back in 1981.

What will happen over the next 30 years? If the cost of some of the above consumer items rises at a similar pace as in the past 30 years, then gasoline prices will run around $9 per gallon while the $20,000 college tuition of today will reach $140,000 per year. But one item which the consumer will not pay a nickel more is on their monthly mortgage payment. At the current median home price and current mortgage rate, the monthly mortgage payment would be fixed at $698 per month for the next 30 years. At the same time, home values likely will have tripled.

So, as we approach the end of 2011, I am fairly hopeful that our housing recovery is on the right track. Jobs are coming back, people are buying homes, home prices are stabilizing. All in all, not a bad way to end the old year, and start the new. Happy holidays!

published by Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist

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Sunday, December 18, 2011

Facebook Rocks Users' Worlds Again

Facebook’s new look, first shown at a Facebook developers conference here in September, rolled out worldwide on Thursday.


The feature offers users a visual personal history that is similar to a digital scrapbook or vanity license plate. Some have even compared its look to Myspace.

Facebook’s 800 million members can either wait for a notification to pop up on their screen or go to Facebook.com/about/Timeline to get Timeline. Eventually all profiles will switch to the new look. Timeline is also available on touch devices using m.Facebook.com and Facebook for Android.

If you’ve put embarrassing photos or posts on Facebook, you’ll have seven days after switching to Timeline to prune them from your profile before Timeline becomes the default look on your profile page.

Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg has called Timeline a way to share life experiences, but it could also become a carrot for marketers and advertisers to target consumers based on their “likes” and devotion to certain brands as Facebook duels with Google+ and other social networks for advertising dollars, analysts say.

R. “Ray” Wang, CEO at Constellation Research, says Timeline should improve the user experience by adding detail and context to one’s profile.

At the same time, Wang cautions, “There’s a growing concern among individuals that Facebook is driving individuals to trade their privacy for convenience without understanding the risks. Can individuals turn it off forever if Facebook still owns the data? What do you do to take yourself out of a Timeline? Is this the beginning of digital extortion?”

Facebook users, who have been historically quick to blanch at new features, seem to be divided into two camps: those who love it and those who loathe it. And, as with previous Facebook features, many users are fretting over the security of their personal data. “It’s almost blog-like, allowing more ownership,” says Stephanie Howell, 25, social media manager at Z Gallerie, a home-furnishing decor company.

Suzie Linville, 33, of Phoenix is concerned about privacy. “You never know who’s going to hack into your page and use that information in a negative manner,” she says. “Once Facebook shows me they are on top of security – I don’t fully believe they are – I’ll go back and check it out.”

© Copyright 2011 USA TODAY, a division of Gannett Co. Inc., Jon Swartz

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Friday, December 16, 2011

Latest Orlando Real Estate News - "The Market Pulse"

The Orlando Market Pulse For The Latest News In The Local Real Estate Market




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Thursday, December 15, 2011

Signs, Signs, Everywhere Signs...Mortgage Appliclations Are Up

Each day the Research staff of Daily Economic Updates takes a look at recently released economic indicators, addressing what these indicators mean for REALTORS® and their clients. Today’s update discusses mortgage applications.

  • Mortgage applications increased 4.1 percent during the week ending December 9.
  • The Purchase Index declined 8.2 percent from the prior week, while the Refinance index moved in the opposite direction, rising 9.3 percent, driven by declining interest rates.
  • Interest rates on 30-year fixed mortgages declined to 4.12 percent, the lowest rate of 2011.
  • Cash purchases—which have been steady at 30 percent of transactions—were not captured in the data.
  • Import prices during the month of November increased 0.7 percent, according to a report by the Labor Department.
  • On a yearly basis, import prices have risen 9.9 percent, adding to the upward inflationary pressure.
On December 14, 2011, in Daily Economic Updates by George Ratiu, Research Econ


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Wednesday, December 14, 2011

The Changing Reality of Florida Real Estate

Sometimes what people think may be happening and what is actually occurring in the real estate market does not coincide. So let’s look at the facts, and hear what some experts in the field have to say about Florida’s economy and real estate.


At the recent Florida Realtors’ 2012 Real Estate and Economic Forecast Conference, Chief Economist Dr. John Tuccillo stressed the slow but steady upward trends in Florida housing and employment, both of which have been overlooked. With prices at attractive levels, investors are back in the market and the distressed property market has stabilized. International demand has risen over the last year, adding to the positive trends in Florida real estate. Realtor panelist Clark Toole agreed, citing the increases in population and employment as positive drivers for the state’s economy.

In Florida and nationwide, restrictions on credit have slowed the real estate market’s recovery. While the average credit scores of approved loans under “normal” circumstances are around 720, in 2009 and 2010 the average was around 760. Easing credit conditions to “normal” could increase sales 15-20% higher. Dr. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, shared his belief that there will be a 10% price increase in South Florida as bargain hunters and foreign buyers boost sales – taking advantage of prices that are too good to pass up.

Even experts outside the industry agree that Florida should have positive growth in 2012. While Florida employment growth has been weak and its recovery sluggish, Mark Vitner, senior economist at Wells Fargo, also had encouraging remarks on the state. He pinpointed tourism and healthcare as leaders in the employment recovery. International visitors to Florida’s many vacation destinations have boosted tourism, while concurrently stepping up as investors in the state’s housing market. Vitner indicated specific areas in the state where prices have bottomed-out and employment has turned around.

The Florida recovery is a marathon, not a sprint. Although the pace is frustrating at times, this slow and steady improvement is good for Florida. The state is moving in the right direction. Realtors can encourage positive thinking about the real estate market with their clients and back up their case with the facts. The national consumer sentiment number of 67.7 beat last month’s 64.1 and the analysts’ forecast, showcasing that consumers’ attitudes are brighter across the U.S. Consumer sentiment has improved each of the last four months. As perceptions shift to better match reality, sales and your business should change for the better.

 Erica Cross, research analyst, Florida Realtors

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Wednesday, December 7, 2011

Just Sold In Lake Mary...

465 VIA TUSCANY LOOP
$307,000


Beautiful 4 Bedroom, 3 Bath, 3 Car Garage, Pool/Spa home in desirable gated community! Second floor features a large bonus room w/full bath & large finished attic storage area. Features formal living and dining room, family room w/wood burning fireplace, office/study, large master suite w/sitting area, built in dresser & shelves, garden tub w/separate glass enclosed shower, double vanity and large california walk-in closet. Trey ceiling, crown molding, archways, indirect lighting, 18" diagonal ceramic tile flooring, 42" solid maple cabinets, center work island, breakfast nook w/bay window provides gorgeous view of the sparkling pool/spa area, inside utility room with additional cabinets and folding counter all add to the great value this home is!
listing courtesy of Watson Realty Corp.


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New Listing In Winter Springs

Just Listed In Winter Springs!
635 Pearl Rd..
139,900



 This 3 Bedroom, Pool Home Shows Like New!  Lots of new maintenance and updates. 
Call to see it!!


listing courtesy of Watson Realty Corp

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Monday, December 5, 2011

Lake Mary New Lisitng

Just Listed In Lake Mary!
1585 Cherry Ridge Dr.
349,900


A Lake Mary Gem! An Exquisite 4 BR, Pool home features a great floor plan with a 3-way split plan.


listing courtesy of Watson Realty Corp

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Sunday, December 4, 2011

ATTN: Investors and Home Buyers - Today’s Market Once-In-Lifetime Opportunity

The monthly cost of owning a home is more affordable now than in the past 15 years, and is less expensive than renting in numerous cities, according to The Wall Street Journal’s third-quarter survey.



Low home prices mixed with low mortgage rates – hovering at 4 percent or lower – create an appealing buyer’s market, analysts say. For example, buyers today have a 77 percent increase in their borrowing power compared to 1991, according to Dan Green, a loan officer with Waterstone Mortgage in Cincinnati. He says that in 1991 a $1,700 mortgage payment allowed a borrower to take out a $200,000 mortgage; today, at current interest rates, the homebuyer can get a $350,000 loan for that same monthly mortgage payment.

In 12 of 28 cities tracked by The Wall Street Journal, monthly mortgage payments on a median-priced home – including taxes and insurance – were lower than the average rent levels.

In Atlanta, owning was the most favorable compared to renting. The monthly rent on a median-priced home there was $539 during the third quarter (with a 20 percent downpayment) compared to the average asking rent, which averaged $840, according to data provided by Marcus & Millichap.

Nationwide, apartment rents are expected to rise by about 4 percent this year, which may make the owning vs. renting picture tilt even higher, according to some analysts.

Despite the appealing housing picture for homebuyers, some continue to stay on the sidelines, unable to sell their current home, qualify for a mortgage due to the tighter credit requirements or keep a steady job, housing experts say.

Source: “Stronger Lure for Prospective Home Buyers,” The Wall Street Journal (Nov. 26, 2011)
© Copyright 2011 INFORMATION, INC. Bethesda, MD


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Saturday, December 3, 2011

New Refinance Program Targets ‘Underwater’ Owners Current On Payments

Matt Hamilton has dutifully paid the loan on his Maitland house and a Longwood rental condo, but until now he could not refinance them to obtain more-affordable interest rates because the properties are financially underwater.



Starting Thursday, Hamilton and many of the other quarter-million Orlando-area residents with “underwater” mortgages can apply for a new Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac refinance program geared for pretty much everyone who owes more on a home than it’s worth – including landlords and second-home owners.

“It’s been difficult because I’m so far in the hole that no one wants to refinance me,” said Hamilton, a product developer for Longwood-based Onlinelabels.com. “But if you look at my payment history, I am a safe risk.”

The federal government’s previous foreclosure-prevention efforts, such as the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP), lowered the interest rates on mortgages of homeowners at risk of foreclosure because they had lost income. But the new Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP) is seen as a possible game changer even for homeowners who are underwater but who have stayed employed and continue making their payments.

Homeowners who have missed mortgage payments in the past six months need not apply. And not all the details – such as loan limits – have been disclosed yet. But this is one of the first refinance programs that doesn’t require an appraisal to determine the value of the house.

“It’s a reward for the responsible borrower who swallowed a bitter pill but still kept moving,” said Travis BeMent, mortgage-loan originator for Home Loans Today of Orlando. “There’re a lot of people out there ready to pounce on this.”

The HARP application process begins Thursday, just as new reports show that more than half of the mortgaged homes in Metro Orlando are saturated with more debt than they are worth. In all, 254,146 mortgaged homes in the four-county metro area are in that situation, according to a report released Tuesday by the mortgage-research company Corelogic.

Even though Orlando has a greater share of underwater homes than Florida overall or the nation as a whole, the percentage of “negative-equity” houses in the metro area actually decreased slightly during the third quarter: 51.6 percent of the mortgaged homes in Orange, Seminole, Osceola and Lake counties were worth less than their loans in the July-through-September period, down from 53.1 percent in the second quarter.

About 44 percent of the mortgaged houses in Florida, and 22 percent of those in the nation, were underwater in the third quarter, according to Tuesday’s report.

Many of those mortgages were sold to homeowners who purchased at the peak of the market in 2006-07, when sales prices were double what they are today and when interest rates ranged from 5.7 percent to 6.5 percent, according to the Orlando Regional Realtor Association. Today, interest rates on a 30-year mortgage are less than 4 percent.

One cautionary note about HARP: Interest rates could change by the time a qualified property owner’s refinancing application is processed, BeMent said. Fannie and Freddie are not expected to have the ability to process the new loans until as late as next March.

But HARP, he noted, also offers a break to homeowners who want to refinance for 15 or 20 years instead of 30 years. To qualify, an owner must have a mortgage backed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac and will likely need a credit score of at least 620.

Orlando lawyer Jeremy Sloane hasn’t missed any payments on a rental home he owns in east Orange County’s Avalon community, but he still loses money on the property every month because the mortgage he took out in 2006 far exceeds the rent he collects, now that prices have collapsed. He said he has already talked to FBC Mortgage about the new federal refinancing program.

“At the end of the day, I don’t think it’s anyone’s responsibility but myself to make the payments, but the frustrating part was that other people have been able to get out of their situation and not take a loss,” Sloane said. “This program will hopefully make it a lot more palatable renting out that house and not taking a loss.”

Copyright © 2011 The Orlando Sentinel (Orlando, Fla.), Mary Shanklin. Distributed by MCT Information Services

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www.LakeMaryRealEstateSales.com

Friday, December 2, 2011

Are You Thinking Of Buying On The Coast? - Citizens To Cover Stop Covering Some Homes

 Citizens Property Insurance Corp. plans to eliminate homeowners coverage on roughly 7,500 coastal homes valued over $1 million and reduce the amount of homeowner liability coverage in a measure designed to reduce the size of the state-backed insurer and corresponding risk to Florida taxpayers.

The underwriting committee, comprised of a voting majority of the Citizens’ Board of Governors, said Wednesday it could reduce the company’s exposure by insuring coastal homes with a value of up to $1 million instead of the current $2 million cap. That would eliminate about 7,500 current high-risk policies. The panel also recommended the company reduce its maximum homeowner liability coverage from $300,000 to $100,000 and eliminate its optional buyback.

Those changes would take effect next year and not require legislative approval, Citizens’ spokeswoman Christine Ashburn said.

A series of changes that would reduce risk on condominiums and some businesses was also discussed and could be approved at the board’s December meeting.

“Some of these proposed changes are salt in the wounds of struggling homeowners,” insurance consumer advocate Sean Shaw said Wednesday. “Raising rates while offering less coverage is callous bullying of consumers who have no other options.”

The Citizens’ board approved an average hike of 32.8 percent on sinkhole policies for homeowners and 6 percent for standard coverage at its October meeting. The board initially sought higher rates, voting in September to cap rate hikes for sinkhole coverage at 50 percent in 2012. But state regulators cut that to a statewide average of 6.2 percent for standard coverage and a cap of 32.9 percent for sinkhole policies.

The panel’s recommendations will be presented to Gov. Rick Scott and the Florida Cabinet at its next meeting on Tuesday.

Scott wanted the Citizens board to come up with recommendations that would not require legislative approval. The governor and other top Republican lawmakers want Citizens shrunk because of fears the insurer would suffer massive losses if a big hurricane hits. Unlike private companies, Citizens has the power to place a surcharge on nearly every insurance bill in the state if it can’t cover such losses.

Scott is on record that he would prefer to see Citizens somehow privatized to relieve the state of a giant liability. He has a valuable ally in Senate Banking and Insurance Committee chairman Garrett Richter of Naples, who agrees that Citizens would be a good target for a private entity because of its existing book of business.

Citizens has roughly 1.5 million policyholders making it easily the largest property insurer for home and business owners in Florida.

The company was created by the Legislature in 2002 to provide insurance to homeowners in high-risk areas and those who cannot find coverage in the private market. It was largely an offshoot of an underwriting association formed by the state in the aftermath of Hurricane Andrew in August 1992.

AP Logo Copyright © 2011 The Associated Press, Brent Kallestad. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

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$73 Per Square Foot! - Just Sold In Oviedo

JUST SOLD IN OVIEDO
168 DALTON DR.
$150,000
The inside is open with a split floor plan and multiple living areas-it's great for family, friends and guests, is perfect for everyday living and wonderfully designed for entertaining as well.   The cook in the house will love the open kitchen and spacious kitchen with abundant storage there's plenty of room to work and an island with breakfast bar for quick meals.  The kitchen is open to the large adjacent family room which is light and bright.  Enjoy views of the outdoors from the Florida room with floor to ceiling glass on two sides, step through the Florida room onto the open patio to enjoy the backyard that is fenced on three sides and open in the back to views of trees and open space, there's plenty of room to play or just hang out.  This fabulous home is a former and has had some modifications, what was once the builder's office in the garage is now being used as a bedroom and could be used once again as an office/den or playroom and the 2 car garage is currently large enough for motorcycles, lawn equipment and storage, but could easily be converted back into a full 2-car garage.

listing courtesy of Watson Realty Corp.

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Thursday, December 1, 2011

Huge Jump in Home Sales for Orlando

Sales of Orlando existing single-family homes jump 18 percent in October - Orlando Regional Realtor Association



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Where's Your Consumer Confidence?

Where's Your Consumer Confidence Compared To 3 Years Ago?



The consumer confidence index among Floridians remained at 65 in November, a ranking that matches a revised mark set in October and is six points higher than the record low of 59 set in June 2008.

The index used by University of Florida researchers is benchmarked to 1966, which means a value of 100 represents the same level of confidence for that year. The lowest index possible is a 2; the highest is 150.

The November survey reveals a mixture of positive and negative perceptions.

“Consumers are slightly less optimistic about current conditions than they were last month and slightly more optimistic about long-run conditions,” says Chris McCarty, director of UF’s Survey Research Center in the Bureau of Economic and Business Research, which conducted the survey.

McCarty noted that of the five categories used to measure consumer confidence, two decreased, two increased and one remained unchanged. A measurement of respondents’ attitudes about current finances compared to one year earlier, for example, fell two points to 52. However, expectations that personal finances will improve a year from now went up three points to 79.

Respondents’ overall view that the U.S. economy will improve over the coming year fell two points to 52, but their expectation that the economy will improve over the next five years remained unchanged at 67.

Finally, the perception that now is a good time to buy big-ticket consumer items, such as televisions and laptop computers, rose four points to 75.

If consumer confidence attitudes are mixed, so, too, are reports of economic activity. The jobless rate for Florida, for example, remains high at 10.3 percent, though there was an encouraging three-tenths of a percent decline in unemployment from September to October. Some of the new hiring occurred in the health and education sectors. An uptick in Florida tourism also spurred job creation in the leisure and hospitality sectors.

Meanwhile, Florida’s consumer confidence continues to be shaken by a slump in housing activity. The median price for a single-family home at $131,550 is down from both September and October of last year.

The gloomy housing outlook is accompanied by modest good news on gasoline prices, which command a larger share of lower income consumers’ spending. They dropped 7 cents in November from the previous month to $3.35 for a gallon of regular gas.

McCarty anticipates mixed prospects in the future. “The Gross Domestic Product (the nation’s annual product and an indicator of economic health), though revised downward for the third quarter, was still positive at 2 percent nationally,” he says. “Florida’s gross state product is forecast to be low, but positive.”

Although the U.S. and Florida may avoid experiencing the effects of negative GDP, most economic indicators “suggest sluggish growth for the next few quarters,” McCarty says. In addition, worsening economic problems in Europe may drag the U.S. into a lower GDP.

Even though retail sales were down in October and consumer confidence levels are low, McCarthy predicts modest growth this holiday season compared with 2010.

© 2011 Florida Realtors®

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New Economic Forecast for 2012 Just Released!

Forecast for 2012